Owoye Olugbenga
3 min readFeb 13, 2020

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Coronavirus: Is this more of economic tool for World Powers

So I'm just thinking to myself ,

** if the amount of active cases for the Coronavirus increased after patients tested using a different method are included , doesn't that give a higher probability of more undetermined and unreported cases ??

I mean, they just started using this new method and numbers went from about 4000 to over 14,000 in 24 hours

*** Theres an hypothesis that says China's economy has already overtaken US economy but it's being downplayed for political reasons even though our forecast gave us a date between 2050 -2060 for this to happen in real-time.

But

*** When SARS epidermic hit China in 2003, its economy suffered significantly. However, Chinese economy is now much more important. At the time China's share of the world economy was only around 5%, today it is more than 16%

*** SARS epidermic then cost China a 1% drop in their GDP.

*** China is a large supplier of materials and big countries are dependent on China for growth e.g Germany.

Germany, which is already struggling with recession will have a 0.06% cut in their GDP if China loses 1% of its GDP, putting Germany economy in more suffering.

Major International companies would no longer get the parts they need and would have to find other suppliers or shut down production. This affects the economy of the underlying countries.

*** China is the world largest importer of oil , and with the advent of Coronavirus crippling activities , there will be a great cut in demand for oil which in turn kills oil price.

A fall in oil price affects countries like Nigeria where a bulk of our GDP is achieved from oil exports.

■■■ USA recently declared autonomy in oil after they achieved one of the largest recoverable oil reserves in the world, meaning this might only have a little or no effect on them.

■■■ Now let's go 2 quarters back , during the US-China trade war , the trade war crippled global economy and this resulted in a higher probability of a mild financial crisis. (Which still is not totally ruled out for me).
As at that time , countries like Germany , Italy , Turkey to mention a few , were all on the verge of a recession.

■■■ Then we had the Saudi Refinery bombing which was linked to Iran. This affected oil prices.

■■■ Shortly after, we had the US - Iran war which resulted in a fall in global oil price.

■■■ Analyst say it's too early to think about the possible effects of the virus on the global economy,
Remember same people refused to declare Coronavirus a global threat until it sprung out of control.

Now we have over 60,000 active cases , over 1360 deaths in which about 242 deaths occurred just yesterday ,this affecting 28 countries worldwide.

■■ Wuhan population of about 45 million people has been closed out to the remaining parts of China and to the world in order to contain and stop the spread of the virus.
That's over 0.6% of the total world population.

If you're reading this , I hope you're connecting the dots . (And I hope I'm as lucid as i hoped to be).

Connect the dots and figure out what I'm trying to say and please prepare for any eventuality.

But then again , I may be wrong . Maybe my imaginations are just running wild.

I stand corrected.

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Owoye Olugbenga

Business analyst | Investment analyst | Billionaire mindset